At Outlook 20, the annual economic outlook forum hosted by the Las Vegas Global Economic Alliance and UNLV’s Lee Business School, the experts agreed that the local economy will remain stable for the foreseeable future.
“This is not the economy of 2006,” said economist Chris Thornberg, one of the speakers. “This is truly a Goldilocks economy. This is an economy that’s not too hot, not too cold.”
A 45-page report detailing employment, tourism, gaming and other figures accompanied presentations by Thornberg, Stephen Miller, director of the Lee school’s Center for Business & Economic Research, and local analyst Jeremy Aguero. There was no mention of a downturn.
“The bottom line is that I don’t see a recession coming in the next two years,” Miller said. “I think the growth of the national economy will be slower, though, than what we’ve seen in recent years. In Southern Nevada, the economy is good today and the outlook looks good, too.”
The economy in Southern Nevada has continued to forge ahead since the seasonally adjusted nonfarm employment number bottomed out at 797,500 in September 2010, according to the report. In September of this year, that number was recorded at 1.036 million.
From December 2017 to December 2018, nearly 30,000 jobs were added to the regional economy. According to the most up-to-date figures for this year, more than 21,000 jobs have been added, the report showed.
In Las Vegas through August, the unemployment rate was 4.3%. That was nearly a full percentage point above the national average, but still low by historical standards.
The construction industry is booming with 1,950 laboring on Allegiant Stadium alone, Aguero said.
“The thing we’re observing in the (Las Vegas) Valley right now is that there’s a shortage of construction workers,” Miller said. “Some estimates have put that at 10,000 or more workers. Construction is strong and will continue to be strong here as we go forward.”
No discussion on the Southern Nevada economy would be complete without updates on tourism and gaming.
Going off figures from CBER’s Clark County Tourism Index — which measures gross county gaming revenue, hotel/motel occupancy and total passengers at McCarran International Airport — tourism and gaming trends have generally shown slow upward growth since the recession. Miller said he expects that trend to continue, but also offered a caveat.
“We see visitor volume as sort of soft and gross gaming revenue as not very robust,” Miller said. “Hotel occupancy is already flirting with 90%, so it’s hard to do much better than that. We’re sticking with our softness in leisure and hospitality, but there will also be 12,000 new rooms going online in Las Vegas in the next several years. If we fill those rooms, then our visitor volume forecast could be wrong.”